Egyptian diplomatic sources have said that Washington paid incentives to Egypt and Ethiopia to reach an agreement on the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. According to these sources, the Egyptian delegation participating in negotiations for the Renaissance Dam in Washington received American promises to provide other sources of freshwater to Cairo, in exchange for the completion of the agreement sponsored by Washington. Those sources indicated to Egypt Watch that the US Treasury Department, in cooperation with the World Bank, pledged to the Egyptian regime to provide giant desalination plants to compensate for the expected shortage in their annual share of Nile water.

Egypt’s annual share of the Nile’s water is 55 billion cubic metres, but the ongoing negotiations may end with reducing its share to less than 40 billion. The desalination plants expected to be provided are divided into two types, the first of which is desalination plants from seawater, so Egypt can benefit from having long coasts on both the Mediterranean and the Red Sea. The second type is for water recycling, or wastewater purification, for use in agriculture. Through these incentives, Washington sought to reduce Cairo’s concerns about the great shortage of Egypt’s share of the Nile water, especially during the years the Renaissance Dam’s reservoir is filled. Egypt relies mainly on the Nile for its water resources for drinking and agriculture. Nevertheless, the problem is that desalination plants would neither be sufficient for Egypt to completely dispense with the Nile waters, nor would it compensate for any huge shortages. The implementation of the huge plants also requires time in order to compensate Cairo. Therefore, it was also necessary to persuade Ethiopia to reduce the speed of filling the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.

According to Egypt Watch’s sources, the American incentives also include the provision of giant electricity generators for the Ethiopian side, and agricultural equipment for Sudan, in order to succeed in Washington’s mediation in signing the agreement. The dam negotiations concluded in the US capital last Thursday. It is scheduled that the American side, in partnership with the World Bank, will finalise the agreement and will present it to the three countries within the next few days, to finish the agreement and sign it before the end of February. The final agreement will include a binding mechanism for settling any disputes that may arise over the interpretation or application of the terms of this agreement, as well as defining the rules for filling and operating the Renaissance Dam. This has raised questions about the conditions of this aid. Washington considers both Cairo and Addis Ababa its biggest allies in Africa, and as such was unwilling to risk any deep division between them. Egypt, Ethiopia, Nigeria, and South Africa are the largest African countries in terms of population and economy and Washington is trying to maintain strong relations with all of them. While Washington is engaged in an economic war with both Iran and China, it is interested in keeping the world economy as stable as possible, in order to avoid any major international criticism of its policies.

It is difficult to keep the world trade movement and the world economy stable if major unrest occurs in Egypt, such as the outbreak of war, for example, with one of the continent’s largest countries, Ethiopia. Washington also depends on Addis Ababa to confront Islamic movements and pirates in Somalia, and secure the Horn of Africa. This means that the United States is interested in keeping the two largest African countries away from any conflict, which may cost Washington far more than any aid it gives them. Over the past months, technical committees from the three countries (Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia) failed to make tangible progress toward a comprehensive agreement in mid-January, in the presence of representatives of the US Treasury and the World Bank. Cairo fears the impact of the dam on its share of the Nile’s water, while Ethiopia says it is interested in generating electricity.