Renaissance Capital Group for Financial Investments has issued a study that concluded that Egypt is the most vulnerable African country to regime change this year due to inflation and poor economic conditions.
According to the study by the group’s chief economist, Charles Robertson, higher inflation increases the risks of regime change in African countries, as higher prices increase the likelihood of a decline in per capita GDP.
The Egyptian Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics announced this month that the inflation rate in the country had risen to 12.1%. The study argued that inflation rates of 20% or more mean that GDP per capita is likely to decline, increasing the chances of political unrest. The study said that prices in Egypt had increased significantly in recent weeks, which has prompted a state of public discontent and increased pressures that urge the authorities to take adequate measures. Robertson noted that low-income countries face more risks when destabilizing external events, such as the war between Russia and Ukraine.